Opinion by Daniele Bernardi, Founder of DIAMAN
The Bold Prediction: Will Bitcoin Reach $13 Million by 2045?
Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, has recently made a statement that has left many in the crypto community wondering. According to Saylor, Bitcoin (BTC) will grow at an average annual interest rate of 29% over the next 21 years, and by 2045, in his best-case scenario, Bitcoin will be worth $13 million.
Understanding Saylor’s Prediction
To understand the validity of Saylor’s prediction, let’s analyze it. In a recent interview, Saylor outlined his prediction as follows:
"Every Bitcoin you don’t buy is gonna cost you $13 million, my friend."
This statement is bold and deserves careful analysis. But what does this mean exactly? Let’s break it down.
The Rate of Adoption Model
Those who have followed me are familiar with the "Rate of Adoption" model. This model correlates Bitcoin’s price to the growth rate of ‘non-zero’ wallets, which are wallets containing at least a fraction of Bitcoin.
I first presented this model in February 2020 at the Quant Workshop Conference, organized by Diaman Partners Ltd. The model predicted the 2021 peak at $63,000, slightly below the all-time high of $67,000 in October 2021.
Updating the Model
In 2023, I updated the model and published the results in Cointelegraph. The prediction for the current cycle was $130,000, a price Bitcoin will soon reach. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and 11 companies simultaneously promoting such an instrument, it’s clear that the parameters have changed.
I had planned to recalculate the model in autumn 2024, and here we are. With the recalibrated model, I am ready to estimate Bitcoin’s price in 2025 before it likely enters the next crypto winter in the autumn and winter of 2025.
Comparing Saylor’s Projection with Our Model
Let’s compare Saylor’s projection with our model. He predicts an average annual return over the next 21 years, while our model uses a more sophisticated power law. This approach relates the average price per wallet to the number of non-zero wallets in circulation. The multiplication of these variables provides the expected market capitalization of Bitcoin, from which it’s easy to derive the price.
The Price of Bitcoin and Its Power Law
Of course, all these projections are based on the assumption that Bitcoin will continue to exist and that its adoption rate will follow a power curve, as it has thus far. As illustrated in the chart, our calculations indicate that by 2045, Bitcoin’s price could reach $8.3 million on the median curve.
On the higher curve, driven by the semi-exponential surge marking the end of each bullish cycle, it could exceed $21.6 million. It is key to remain aware of Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, as the market is filled with individuals who settled for gains of +60% or +100%, only to exit too early and miss out on subsequent, extraordinary price increases.
The Projected Relative Peak for 2025
Now, let’s move on to the projected relative peak for 2025 based on the Rate of Adoption model, particularly considering the increased adoption driven by Bitcoin ETFs. The 2025 forecast for Bitcoin’s peak price is $261,000, nearly double the previous estimate.
Current Dynamics of Bitcoin’s Price
Of course, there are no guarantees that these values will materialize, nor should this be considered investment advice. I always recommend conducting thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions, ideally with a qualified financial adviser who can guide you on the appropriate allocation within your portfolio.
It is crucial to understand the dynamics and potential of Bitcoin thoroughly. Otherwise, it may always seem too expensive to buy. Looking at the chart above, you’ll notice that even with Bitcoin hitting all-time highs, we are still far from the upper boundary projected to mark the relative peak for 2025.
The Final Word
I’ll leave you with a particularly insightful phrase:
"Everyone gets the Bitcoin price they deserve."
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Explore More Articles Like This
Subscribe to our Markets Outlook newsletter for critical insights to spot investment opportunities, mitigate risks, and refine your trading strategies. Delivered every Monday.
By subscribing, you agree to our Terms of Services and Privacy Policy.
In conclusion, Saylor’s prediction that Bitcoin will reach $13 million by 2045 is bold and ambitious. While our model suggests a more conservative estimate, it is essential to remain aware of the potential trajectory of Bitcoin’s price.
As we navigate the complexities of the crypto market, it is crucial to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Stay informed, stay vigilant, and always remember: "Everyone gets the Bitcoin price they deserve."
